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European nations sit among the overwhelming favourites to win the 2026 World Cup, with Spain, England, and France all considered contenders heading into the summer tournament. But South America cannot be discounted, with defending champions Argentina sitting second in the FIFA World Rankings and Brazil and Colombia both capable of going deep.
No nation from outside these two continents has ever lifted the World Cup. Africa, Asia, and the host nations of North and Central America have produced memorable moments and surprise runs, but the trophy has always found its way back to one of two destinations. With FIFA World Cup match odds reflecting just how competitive the market is, the question is simple: which continent will claim the ultimate football prize?
Can Europe reclaim the trophy?
Spain are the current number one ranked side in the world and arrive as reigning European champions after winning Euro 2024. Lamine Yamal and Pedri are expected to be central figures, and with the squad that dismantled opponents across that competition largely intact, there is a strong argument that La Roja are peaking at exactly the right time. Their 2022 campaign ended in a round of 16 penalty defeat to Morocco, but that group have matured considerably since. If any European nation lifts the trophy in July, it will most likely be them.
France have back-to-back finals to their name, winning in 2018 before losing on penalties to Argentina four years later. With Kylian Mbappe leading the line alongside a deep squad, Les Bleus will fancy their chances of going one better.
England’s qualifying campaign was nothing short of historic. Tuchel’s side won all eight Group K fixtures without conceding a single goal, scoring 22 in the process. A 1-1 draw with Uruguay in a late March friendly was a patchy result, but was an important opportunity for Tuchel to test out various fringe players from a B or C-level team. Uruguay’s Manuel Ugarte also appeared to collect two yellow cards without being sent off, which hardly helped England’s case to give them a bettering. Once the first-choice squad returns, England’s ceiling looks considerably higher.
The South American case
The conditions across several host venues could also work in South American favour. Mexico City sits at over 2,200 metres above sea level, and cities such as Houston and Miami will bring intense heat and humidity. CONMEBOL qualifying routinely involves high-altitude and high-temperature fixtures that European nations simply never encounter, so adapting to North America’s more demanding environments should come more naturally to the South American sides.
Argentina arrive as defending champions with Messi, Mac Allister and Enzo Fernandez among their ranks. History does give cause for concern, with France, Italy, Spain and Germany all falling victim to the champions curse at the following tournament, though France bucked the trend in 2022. Their Group J draw alongside Algeria, Austria, and Jordan looks favourable, however.
Brazil have Vinicius Junior and Raphinha in attack under Carlo Ancelotti, Colombia bring Luis Diaz and James Rodriguez, and Uruguay, guided by Marcelo Bielsa with Federico Valverde and Darwin Nunez leading the way, are not without their own ambitions. Their task is the hardest of any South American side, drawn against world number one Spain in Group H, but getting out of that group would be a serious statement.
Uruguay should not be overlooked either. Marcelo Bielsa has built a side that qualified comfortably from South America, and with Federico Valverde and Darwin Nunez leading the way, they have the tools to cause problems for anyone. Their group draw is the toughest of any South American nation, however, pitting them against world number one Spain alongside Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde in Group H. Getting out of that group would represent a significant statement of intent.
Both continents arrive in North America with genuine reason for optimism, and the arguments on either side are compelling. Europe have the numbers, the form and the world’s top ranked side. South America have the holders, the hunger and conditions that may suit them better than their rivals expect.
